By ADRIAN MWANZA
ANOTHER opinion poll has indicated that the Patriotic Front will carry the day with a commanding 52.3 percent of the potential voters and would be followed Hakainde Hichilema of the UPND with 46.6 percent of the potential voters.
Dr Brian Mwiinga, leader of the Consortium of Zambian Thought Leaders from various academic institutions across the country and outside indicated that the PF would carry the day with UPND in second while the Socialist Party are in distant third after garnering a paltry one percent.
This is the second opinion poll conducted by a Consortium of Zambian Thought Leaders from various academic institutions across the country and outside.
The First Opinion Poll was conducted between June 12 and July 12, 2021, and results placed the PF Presidential candidate Edgar Lungu ahead of his closest challenger, UPND Presidential candidate, Mr Hakainde Hichilema.
Dr Mwiinga said the total number of registered voters in PF strongholds was at 5, 074, 162 while those for the UPND was just 1, 949, 337.
Dr Mwiinga said the second and final opinion poll was conducted from July 28 to August, 6, 2021 and that this period was strategically selected as it was a just a few days from the August 12 Presidential elections which period most voters who were undecided during the first opinion poll were highly likely to be decided whom they would vote for.
He said the target population in this poll was defined as any Zambian 18 years or older, the inclusion criterion was restricted to registered voters and those intending to vote in the Presidential elections of August 12, 2021.
Dr Mwiinga said the initial target sample size was 5, 000 factoring in a nonresponse rate of 10 percent, the ultimate sample size we settled on was 5, 556.
He said the sample size was five times higher than the international standard used in the Gallup Poll the typical sample size for a Gallup poll.
Dr Mwiinga said the Gallup Poll was the division of Gallup that regularly conducted public opinion polls had measured and tracked the public’s attitudes concerning political, social, and economic issues, including sensitive or controversial subjects.
He said as expected the two major parties PF and UPND maintained their stronghold in their areas of traditional support.
Dr Mwiinga said thus the PF had commanding and unassailable leads in the Luapula, Eastern, Muchinga and Northern provinces all above 80 percent.
“More specifically eight out of every 10 voters of registered voters in these key provinces indicated preference for the ECL and the PF ticket,” he said.
He said UPND ticket the Southern, North-Western, and Western provinces remain their bastions of support.
Mr Mwiinga said in Southern Province support for the UPND ticket was almost total, nine out of every ten registered voters expressed desire to vote for MrHichilema.
He said given the low margin of error in the opinion poll, results presented in this study were a fairly accurate reflection of how the election results were likely to turn out today.
Dr Mwiinga said the Patriotic Front presidential candidate with his running mate, Professor Nkandu Luo were likely to win the election with a significant 52.3 percent of the valid votes cast.